Suchergebnisse

ObjectiveThis study advances the presidential primary fundraising literature in two ways. First, we explore candidate fundraising during the preprimary period through the lens of public attention, arguing that candidates must find ways to activate interest in their campaigns in order to raise money. Second, we use Google Trends data to measure how much the public is paying attention to each presidential primary candidate and how this concept affects fundraising.MethodsWe use pooled cross‐sectional time‐series models to determine the impact of public attention on a candidate's weekly fundraising totals.ResultsWe find that a candidate's share of public attention is one of the main drivers of preprimary period fundraising, even for non‐front‐running candidates.ConclusionThis finding illustrates the role the public plays in shaping the preprimary period and identifies a determinant of fundraising that is readily available and frequently updated, allowing both scholars and campaigns to better monitor the preprimary phase of the presidential nomination process.

ObjectiveTo propose a new indicator of public attention to electoral candidates based on the relative pattern of Internet queries for opposing candidates.MethodsTo demonstrate the validity of this measure, we use ordinary least squares regression and an F‐ratio test.ResultsWe find that this measure, based on Google Insights data, behaves in a manner consistent with a valid measure of public attention. Moreover, this finding holds when the measure is included in a standard model used to explain U.S. Senate election outcomes.ConclusionThe Google Insights measure of relative public attention shows the shifts in public attention as the campaign is waged and is consistent with how we would expect to see such a measure behave. This research opens numerous avenues for research in the campaigns and elections subfield.

Literature on open‐seat elections has focused on the individual attributes of a candidate and/or institutional arrangements. When a seat becomes an open contest could be a significant indicator as to how likely the incumbent party is able to maintain the seat. Examining data on open U.S. House seats from 1996 to 2008, we use OLS regression and logistic regression analysis, finding that time is a significant predictor for incumbent party fund‐raising and seat maintenance. We conclude that political parties have an interest in encouraging members of Congress to announce their retirement early in the election cycle.